我国中小板市场泡沫的度量

2008年10月到2009年2月中旬,我国中小板综合指数区间最大涨幅80%,远远超过同期上证指数约40%的区间最大涨幅,关于中小板是否存在泡沫,人们的争论颇多。在这样的背景下,借鉴国内相关研究成果,根据模型推导出合理市盈率的计算公式,并利用改进的加权平均市盈率代替被广泛使用的市盈率,考察我国中小板市场2005～2008年的泡沫程度。

A Measure of the China's Small and Medium Enterprise Market Bubble

In October 2008 to mid-February 2009,China’s largest range of the Small and Medium Enterprise Market composite index rose 80 percent,far exceeding the Shanghai Stock Market composite index over the same period of about 40%,with regard to the Small and Medium Enterprise Market debate over the existence of a bubble. In this context,drawing on related domestic research results,according to O-F model derived the formula for calculating a reasonable price-earnings ratio,using the improved weighted average price-earnings ratio to replace the price-earnings ratio widely-used,so as to study of the Small and Medium Enterprise Market’s bubble level during 2005 to 2008.