我国寿险经营风险的实证研究

由于寿险保单的长期性和给付在很大程度上的必然性 ,所以相对于产险 ,寿险更易受外部环境的影响 ,其风险的隐蔽性更大 ,潜伏期更长。本文利用寿险公司的经营实绩进行研究 ,通过考察各寿险公司责任准备金的提取和责任准备金的运用情况、公司的资产结构中赢利资产的比例及变动情况 ,按照“投保人应缴保费的现值 =未来保险利益的现值”这一等式原理 ,建立风险测定模型 ,揭示寿险业风险的成因 ,测算目前寿险公司偿付能力风险的平均水平 ,为更好地把握寿险经营风险的性质和程度与调整保险监管的方式和方向提供依据。

A case study of operational risks of China's life insurance

Compared with property insurance,the long period of time certified in the life insurance policy and its largely unavoidability make it more susceptible to circumstances,its risks stay hidden longer and more difficult to be seen.The author makes a study of insurance companies' operations in drawing and using the liability fund and the proportion and change of the profitable capital.By applying the equation "the present value of the premuim paid by the insured= the value of the promised benefits in the future",the author establishes a risk predicting mode,reveals the source of the risks faced by the life insurance industry and estimates the average risk level of payment of life insurance companies.This may provide a good basis for better adjusting the mode and direction of insurance supervision and controlling the nature and extent of the operational risks of life insurance.