| 未来40年安徽省户籍人口变动趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 田飞.未来40年安徽省户籍人口变动趋势[J].合肥学院学报(社会科学版),2012(1):26-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学人口研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目“迁移人口预测的仿真系统研究”(08BRK010)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以安徽省历年人口数据为参数数据,依次对未来总和生育率、期望寿命、出生性别比以及生育模式等参数进行了估计;再以2000年户籍数据为队列数据,采用队列因素法的场景预测方法,预测并分析了未来40年安徽省人口总量、人口分布、老龄化人口和劳动适龄人口等变动趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 安徽 场景预测方法 户籍人口 |
On the Trend of Registered Population Changing of Anhui in the Coming Forty Years |
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| TIAN Fei.On the Trend of Registered Population Changing of Anhui in the Coming Forty Years[J].Journal of Hefei University:Social Sciences,2012(1):26-33. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Fei |
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| Institution: | TIAN Fei(Institution of Population,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on historic demographic data as parameter one in Anhui TRF,the life expectancy,the sex ratio at birth and the pattern of population growth are evaluated.Then based on 2000 registered data of Anhui,the changing trend of total population,population distribution,aging population and labor suitable population are forecasted with scenarios forecast method of the cohort component method. |
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| Keywords: | population projection Anhui scenarios forecast method registered population |
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