汇率与退税政策对出口贸易的影响分析——基于协整和SVAR模型的应用

基于1984-2009年的数据，文章构建了我国出口、人民币实际汇率、退税政策以及国外需求四个变量的协整和SVAR模型。通过模型的实证分析可以得到：出口退税和汇率政策对出口的影响呈现当期和长期的不一致性，验证了政策时滞的存在；但是出口退税的时滞较小，短期内能有效影响中国出口；而汇率的时滞较长，对出口的影响呈现“J”曲线效应；国外需求对出口的较大影响不容忽视。各个结构冲击对出口增长的贡献度中，国外需求最大，均值为30％；退税政策的最大值为10％；人民币实际汇率仅为3％。文章讨论了结果赋予的政策含义。

Analysis on Impacts of Exchange Rate and Export Tax Rebates on Export-Based on Application Study of the Con-integration and SVAR Model

Based on the data of 1984-2009,this paper constructs a con-integration model and SVAR model that includes four variables: export,RMB effective exchange rate,export tax rebates and foreign demand.By empirical analysis,the author finds that: the impacts of the export tax rebates and exchange rate policy on export are inconsistent in the current period against the forward period,which verifies the lagging effect of the policy.The lagging effect of export tax rebates is less than that of exchange rate,which can affect Chinese export trade in the short term.Comparatively speaking,the lagging of exchange rate would be longer and its impact on export takes on a "J" curve;the effects from foreign demand can not be neglected.Among all contributions of various structures to export growth foreign demand takes the largest share,averaged at 60%.The maximum impact of tax rebate policies reaches 10 percent while the RMB effective exchange rate takes only 5 percent.The policy implications are also discussed in the paper.