中国地方财政收入与支出——面板数据因果性与协整研究

本文应用面板数据格兰杰因果性检验和面板数据协整方法,研究中国省级政府财政收入与支出的关系。我们发现,在1979~1993年,省级财政支出与财政收入相互影响,存在双向因果关系;1994年以后,财政支出单方面影响财政收入。在1979~2005年整个时期,省级财政收入与支出之间存在长期均衡关系。分析结果表明,分税制改革事实上加强了省级政府对财政收入的控制能力,省级财政收支仍然保持密切联系。本文还对财政改革提出了政策建议。

China's Regional Fiscal Revenues and Expenditures

With the panel Granger causality and the panel data co-integration approach, we have studied the relationship between the fiscal revenue and expenditure of China's provincial-level governments and found that, between 1979 and 1993, the provincial-level fiscal revenue and expenditure interact and there existed a relationship of two-direction causality between the said revenue and the said expenditure, and that after 1994, only the fiscal expenditure has impacted on fiscal revenue and not vice versa. In the w...