对我国贸易自由化的非完全竞争CGE模型分析

目前已有很多研究运用CGE模型的分析方法对我国加入WTO后关税与非关税减让措施的经济影响进行评估,但往往将中国作为一般市场经济国家处理,未能考虑到目前中国经济的一些特殊结构。本文的贡献在于更现实地将我国经济中依然存在的一些非完全竞争因素,如价格控制、垄断标价等纳入模型结构。另外在政府贸易措施方面也进行了比已有研究更为详细的设定,如名义关税与实际关税、非关税壁垒、进口间接税、出口退税等等,因此具有更强的政策分析能力。通过模型分析,本文不仅对经济总量、结构和贸易规模等进行了一般预测,而且证明某些非完全竞争因素如垄断程度的减弱与非关税壁垒的尽可能的降低都会进一步提高GDP或国民福利的水平。

An Imperfect Competitive CGE Analysis of China's Trade Liberalization

There are already many studies on the evaluation of the economic effects of China's entry into the WTO using CGE models,which mostly treat China as a usual market economy without taking account of China's special current economic structure.This study incorporated certain elements of imperfect competition that still exist in the Chinese economy,e.g.,government's price control,monopoly markup pricing,etc.,and specified in more detail the government interventions into foreign trade,e.g.,nominal and actual tariffs,non-tariff trade barriers,indirect import taxes,tax return on exports,etc.These all made it possible to conduct more relevant policy analyses.This study,therefore,not only provided the general predictions about the economic aggregates,structural changes,and trade volumes,but also proved the rising GDP or national welfare if the extent of imperfect competition and non-tariff barriers were further reduced.