中国货币供给的宏观效应：一个马尔科夫机制转换的视角

在时变和非线性框架下考察了我国货币供给和货币政策实施货币盯住模式的宏观绩效，计量分析结果表明近年来我国货币供给冲击的宏观效应大大减弱，不确定性上升，货币盯住模式的有效性显著下降，同时利率盯住模式的有效性在显著上升。因此在新的市场经济条件下，通过更灵活、调节成本更小、信息量更充分的利率信号监测并引导宏观经济运行成为提高货币政策效率、改善宏观调控的必然选择。同时货币当局还应选择与最终目标的相关性高而不确定性小的单一中介目标。

Macro-effect of China's Monetary Supply: a Shift of Perspective of Markov Switching Regime Model

Under the framework of non-linear and time-varying analysis,we investigate the macro-performance of monetary targeting paradigm of China’s monetary policy.Our econometric test shows that in recent years the macro-effect of monetary targeting is significantly weakening,its uncertainty is increasing and its efficiency is diminishing.At the same time,the efficiency of interest targeting is improving.So in the new market economy circumstances,we should use interest signal to monitor and guide the operation of macro economy,which is more flexible,less costly and contains more information.Also,the single intermediate target should be chosen.