武汉市建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的 库兹涅茨曲线分析

基于武汉市1997-2017年土地利用和能源消耗数据，构建库兹涅茨曲线模型验证碳排放强度与建设用地扩张之间的关系。结果表明：（1）武汉市1997-2017年碳排放总量随建设用地面积的增长呈波动型增加，其中建设用地碳排放是其主要来源，占碳排放总量的99%以上；（2）武汉市碳排放强度与建设用地总量比例存在“倒U”型库兹涅茨曲线关系；（3） 二级地类中，居民点及工矿用地比例和交通运输用地比例与碳排放强度之间均存在“倒U”型库兹涅茨曲线关系，而水利设施用地比例与碳排放强度之间无明显的曲线关系。为此，建设用地扩张指标应向低碳产业用地倾斜，同时促使土地向具有碳汇功能的草地、林地等土地利用类型转换。

Kuznets Curve Empirical Analysis of Wuhan Construction Land Expansion and Carbon Emission Effect

As a major human social and economic activity,the expansion of construction land can significantly affect the total amount of carbon emissions.Based on the data of land use and energy consumption in Wuhan from 1997 to 2017,this paper analyzed the relationship between urban CO2 emissions and economic growth by applying the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.This study is to investigate how urban CO2 emission intensity has changed with the growth of construction land.The results demonstrate:1) The period 1997 to 2017 saw an increased volatility in total carbon emission of which the carbon emissions of construction land were the main source accounting for more than 99% of the total.2) An inverted U shape relationship between urban CO2 emission intensity and urban construction land was captured.3) Among the secondary class of construction site,an inverted U shape relationship was observed with regard to the transport and residential & industry sectors while in water sector no obvious relationship was observed.Therefore it is proposed that quotas of construction land should be prioritized in favor of low-carbon emission industrial land use.Meanwhile,efforts should be made to convert various land into green area with carbon sink function such as grassland and woodland.