城镇化趋缓背景下株洲市房地产市场风险测度

湖南省株洲市城镇化率已达到较高水平，城镇化速度明显放缓，导致住房需求增长乏力，楼市发展受到冲击。选取影响株洲房地产市场的宏观、行业与微观层面的12个指标，运用综合赋权功效系数法，对株洲房地产市场进行风险测算。结果表明，2016—2020年，株洲房地产市场风险虽仍处于安全区间，但安全系数越来越小，有趋向危险区间的风险。基于此，建议从加强预售资金监管、提高开发门槛、探索现房销售模式、抓住长株潭都市圈发展机遇等方面，化解城镇化趋缓所带来的房地产市场风险，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

Research on Risk Measurement of Zhuzhou Real Estate Market Underthe Slowdown of Urbanization

The urbanization rate of Zhuzhou City has reached a high level, and the urbanization speed has slowed down significantly, resulting in the weak growth of housing demand and quite a shock to the development of the real estate market. Taking Zhuzhou City in Hunan Province as an example, this paper selects 12 indicators at the macro, industrial and micro levels that affect Zhuzhou real estate market, and uses the comprehensive weighting efficacy coefficient method to calculate the risk of Zhuzhou real estate market.The results show that from 2016 to 2020, the risk of Zhuzhou real estate market is still in the safe range, but the safety coefficient is getting smaller and smaller, and there is a risk of tending to the dangerous range. We can resolve the risks of the real estate market caused by the slowdown of urbanization and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market by strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds, raising the threshold of real estate development, discussing the sales of existing houses and seizing the development opportunities of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area.