新兴服务贸易对经济增长的影响分析

根据中国1997-2009年新兴服务贸易的进口、出口和经济增长数据,采用时间序列的处理方法-VAR模型,考察了新兴服务贸易和经济增长的关系。结果表明：一方面,从长期趋势看,发展新兴服务贸易出口与经济增长之间构成了均衡及长期的稳定关系。另一方面,在滞后一、二期的情况下,新兴服务贸易进口对经济增长存在着一定程度的刺激作用;滞后三期的情况下,新兴服务贸易的进口与经济增长的格兰杰原因并不显著。

Analysis of Impact of Emerging Service Trade on Economical Growth

Based on the data of the emerging service trade of China from1997 to 2009,this paper analyses the export data,import data & the economical growth data by use of cointegration test and regression model & VAR model,to see the relationship between emerging service trade and economic growth.The results show that there is a stable correlation between the emerging service trade export and economical growth;the service trade import can stimulate the economical growth in the case of lagging one or two periods;while the Granger cause of emerging service trade import and economical growth in the lagging phase of three periods is not significant.