预防性储蓄动机强度的地区差异分析——基于海南省农村居民的研究（1990—2008）

采用Dnyna的预防性储蓄模型和固定效应-工具变量法（FE-IV）对海南省农村居民1990—2008年的预防性储蓄动机强度及其地区差异进行了估计。研究发现：1.海南省农村居民存在明显的预防性储蓄动机,强度高于海南省城镇居民的水平,但远低于全国农村居民的平均水平;2.海南省不同收入地区的农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度差别不大,没有出现＂居民收入越低,预防性储蓄动机越强＂的规律;3.提高人均GDP水平和城镇化率都不能有效降低海南省农村居民的预防性储蓄水平。

Regional Difference Analysis on the Strength of Precautionary Savings Motive——A Research Grounded on Hainan Rural Inhabitants (1990-2008)

Based on the panel data of Hainan rural inhabitants from 1990 to 2008,this paper examines the regional difference of the strength of precautionary savings motive by employing Dynan’s model and FE-IV.It is found that:(a) the rural inhabitants’ strength of precautionary savings motive is stronger than that of Hainan urban inhabitants,but far weaker than the average of Chinese rural inhabitants;(b) the fluctuations of regional difference of Hainan rural inhabitants’ strength of precautionary savings motive exist,though not much,and positive relationship between income and the strength of precautionary savings motive is not found;(c) the precautionary savings of Hainan rural inhabitants can not be reduced by economical development and urbanization.