人口稀释效应对经济增长异质性的影响——基于人力资本积累、R&D传导的机理分析

将人口增长“稀释效应”嵌入一个四部门水平创新框架,提出一个同时内生化个体经济行为、R&D技术进步与人力资本积累的内生增长模型,推导并刻画了经济收敛于BGP均衡及影响经济增长率的因素,为解释人口增长对经济增长产生不确定影响的“正负符号之争”提供了微观基础分析。边际贡献在于:修正设定知识积累存在非规模效应且人力资本积累存在“稀释效应”,放宽对参数的上限或正负进行先验设定。得出结论:人口增长产生负向“稀释效应”与正向“思想效应”是影响经济增长的微观传导路径,正负效应共同作用门槛值大小的不同决定人口增长与经济增长呈非单调异质性不确定影响,进一步分析了稀释效应与门槛值之间的内在关联,数值模拟量化了参数效应。

Heterogeneity of Economic Growth Influenced by Population Dilution Effect:Based on the Mechanism of Human Capital Accumulation and R&D Transmission

The“dilution effect”of population growth is embedded into a four-sector level,buliding an growth model with endogenous microeconomic behavior,R&D innovation and human capital accumulation,derived the BGP equilibrium and the factor influencing economic growth,in which a micro-foundation is analyzed to explain“The Battle of Signs”.The marginal contribution:there is a non-scale effect in the knowledge accumulation and“dilution effect”in the human capital accumulation,relaxed the prior setting about the upper limit or positive and negative with parameters.It suggest that the negative“dilution effect”and positive“thought effect”are microscopic transmission paths,the combined effect and different threshold value determines heterogeneity of economic growth influenced by population growth.Furthermore,the correlation between dilution effect and threshold value is analyzed,and the parametric effect is quantified by numerical simulation.