Kritische Ereignisse und private Überschuldung

This article investigates in how far critical life events (e.g. unemployment) as well as financial shocks triggered by such events affect the probability of private households to enter over-indebtedness (shock hypothesis). Second, we examine if the effect of such events is mitigated by coping measures set by the household after the critical event and/or financial shock has occurred (coping hypothesis). Third, we test if the effect of critical events/financial shocks also depends on the household structure and its financial circumstances (vulnerability hypothesis). To test these hypotheses, we use panel data from the ECHP (1995–2001) and EU-SILC (2004–2008) for Austria. We estimated multivariate panel regression models which allow controlling for unobserved, time-invariant factors. Results suggest that financial shocks have a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of becoming over-indebted, while we did not find evidence for a direct effect of critical life events on over-indebtedness after controlling for unobserved time-constant factors in the fixed effects regression specifications. Regarding the coping hypothesis, evidence for a diminishing moderation effect of cost-saving strategies by households is weak but robust. Similarly, there is some evidence to support the vulnerability hypothesis—but only for some of the indicators chosen to reflect household vulnerability. Overall, our results indicate that causes to enter over-indebtedness cannot be exclusively reduced to either exogenous shocks or behavioral factors.