论"高储蓄两难"困境及其出路

当前,中国正面临着“高储蓄两难”困境。由于中国的金融体系具有明显的脆弱性,在存在“FDI的中国偏好”和“中国的FDI偏好”前提下,资本账户开放度越高,则国际资本流入越多、贸易顺差越大、外汇储备越高、“高储蓄两难”困境就越严重。如果人民币只能选择继续升值,则消除“高储蓄两难”的过程必须与资本账户可重新恢复管制的过程相联系。适当强化对资本帐户的管制、限制和疏导国际资本流入、深化金融体制改革、控制人民币升值幅度、加强东亚汇率协调是在不同环境前提下可选择的弱化和消除“高储蓄两难”的必由之路。

On the Difficult Position and the Out Way of "Conflicted Venture"

At present,China is facing the difficult position of 'conflicted venture'.As China's financial system has its own remarkable weakness,under the prerequisite of 'FDI Chinese favor' and 'Chinese FDI favor',the higher the capital account opens,the more the international capital follows in;the more business surplus and the higher the foreign exchange deposit are,the difficult position of the 'conflicted venture' will get more serious.If RMB can only choose continuous appreciation,then the course of eliminating 'conflicted venture' must be linked with the course of the resuming control of capital account.In reality, properly strengthening the control of capital account,limiting and guiding the flowing in of international capital,deepening the reform of financial system,controlling the degree of the appreciation of RMB and strengthening the coordination of East Asia exchange rate are the necessary way to weakening and eliminating 'conflicted venture' that can be chosen under the prerequisite of different conditions.