Overconfidence in tournaments: evidence from the field |
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Authors: | Young Joon Park Luís Santos-Pinto |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Psychology, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 15, 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | This paper uses a field survey to investigate the quality of individuals’ beliefs of relative performance in tournaments.
We consider two field settings, poker and chess, which differ in the degree to which luck is a factor and also in the information
that players have about the ability of the competition. We find that poker players’ forecasts of relative performance are
random guesses with an overestimation bias. Chess players also overestimate their relative performance but make informed guesses.
We find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: high-skilled chess players make better forecasts than
low-skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient. |
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Keywords: | |
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