国债利率结构的动态分析与思考

文章通过动态追踪１９９８ 年１ —８ 月国债收益率曲线的变动得出以下结论：一是蝴蝶型变动偏多表明较为严重的市场分割，并对运用欠期技术规避风险产生影响。二是１９９８ 年的数次降息是影响利率结构变动的主要因素，但每次降息对利率结构有不同的作用方式。三是新国债发行的示范效应大于挤占效应。四是利率结构的波动特征对运用财政货币政策实施宏观调控有重要的参考价值

Interest Rate Structure Dynamic Analyis

Rate structure is the indicator of the bond market.From a dynamic point of view ,we follow the movement of term structure from Jan.to Aug.1998 in China's government bond market,which leads to more revelations.First,too many butterfly movements may be an indication of higher degree of segregation.Second ,more times interest cuts in 1998 represented themselves as the dominant factor influencing the term structure though each one demonstrated some uniquenessy,and third,certain effects on term structure can be felt by new issuance in which exemplary effect seemed more apparent than crowding out effect because China's bond market was at the seller's stage,and fourth ,the movements of the term structure provides an useful reference for macro economic control.