城市内部因素对中国城市人口规模扩张的影响

文章从城市主体行为出发,结合城市生产率、城市居民税负等构建城市人口解释模型.基于2008-2011年全国101个代表性城市数据,利用残差分离、门槛回归技术展开实证研究,发现:中国城市人口规模与城市生产率、城市便利度呈正向关系,与居民税负、征地成本呈负向关系;城市内部因素影响城市人口规模的路径为“影响因素—城市房租水平—城市人口规模”,城市生产率具有决定性影响;城市生产率、城市便利性对城市人口的影响,越过人口规模门槛后会发生结构性变化;中国沿海三大都市圈中城市人口规模的主要影响因素迥异.

City population size development based urban interior factor

In the China''s urbanization mode, the population urbanization lags behind the land urbanization. Population urbanization needs to attach great importance to the urban internal factors. This article embarks from the internal factors to construct urban economic general equilibrium model, and use the urban micro data to carry out the empirical analysis. The results indicates that: 1) Urban population scale is positively related to urban productivity and urban convenience, then has a negative correlation to the urban governance inefficient level and urban land acquisition cost. 2) On the whole, path for the internal factors influence on the city development is "factor -city rent level-the urban population scale". Urban productivity dominantly influences on China''s urban rent levels; the influence degree of convenience for city rent level is limit. 3) The influence of urban productivity and convenience to the rent, considering 1.218 9 million and 1.68 4 million as population threshold, will be structural changed and will increase by 1.42 times and 2 times respectively. 4) As the rent level is gradually increased, the presented curve of the intensity of the productivity impact on the rent level is "S" type, intensity curve of urban convenience impact on the rent is shaped as "inverted U". 5) The Pearl River delta and Yangtze River delta city rent or city size is positively correlation to productivity obviously. The convenience of the city in metropolitan circle development was ascended with increasing latitude. At present, the main driving factor for urban development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle is convenience rather than productivity.