| 长沙市碳排放与影响因素的拟合变动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵先超,丁梦,杨英.长沙市碳排放与影响因素的拟合变动分析[J].湖南工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2012,17(1):15-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵先超 丁梦 杨英 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南工业大学 长株潭两型社会研究院;湖南工业大学 长株潭两型社会研究院;湖南工业大学 长株潭两型社会研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科规划基金项目(12YJA790215);湖南省社科基金一般项目(11YBB133) |
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| 摘 要： | 科学认识城市碳排放的影响因素及其存在的相关性,再有效制定碳减排对策的重要基础。利用相关系数法定量测定了长沙市碳排放与其影响因素之间的相关性关系，并利用岭回归分析方法对城市碳排放与其影响因素进行了定量变动分析。研究结果表明：在城市化快速推进的背景下，长沙市碳排放的影响因素按其对模型的解释能力依次是总人口（0.750 4）、单位GDP能耗（0.371 9）、城市化率（0.272 0）以及城市居民人均消费支出（0.145 2）。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放 影响因素 岭回归分析 长沙市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/11/10 0:00:00 |
Fitting Variation Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in Changsha City |
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| ZHAO Xianchao,DING Meng and YANG Ying.Fitting Variation Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in Changsha City[J].Journal of Hunan University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2012,17(1):15-20. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xianchao DING Meng and YANG Ying |
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| Institution: | 1(1.Institute of "Two-Oriented Society" of CZT,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou,Hunan 412007,China; 2.School of Resource and Environment Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China) |
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| Abstract: | The important basis for effectively making carbon abatement measures is to scientifically understand the affecting factors of city carbon emissions and its existed response. The correlation coefficient method to quantitatively measure the relationship between Changsha carbon emissions and its influence factors, as well as the ridge regression to analyze the quantitative change of Changsha carbon emissions and their influence factors are respectively used. The results shows that the influencing factors of Changsha carbon emissions by its explaining ability model are as follows, such as total population (0.750 4), energy intensity per GDP (0.371 9), urbanization rate (0.272 0) and urban residents per capita consumption expenditure (0.145 2) with the background of rapid urbanization. |
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| Keywords: | carbon emissions influencing factors ridge regression analysis Changsha city |
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