People Think Like Me: Religion and Wishful Thinking in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election

Wishful thinking occurs when a personal preference influences one's prediction of an outcome, most often in political campaigns. This preference-expectation link is explained by the selective exposure of persons to people like themselves and uses of this information when first asked to predict an election outcome. Few studies have examined the role of religion, which theoretically should enhance wishful thinking. Persons high in doctrinal orthodoxy and religious salience were found to engage in greater wishful thinking. Exposure to mainstream news media, however, tended to moderate this effect.