Casting the 2000 U.S. Presidential Primaries

This article examines the 2000 U.S. presidential primaries as a case study in "casting" by early journalistic and polling choices. Casting is a strong series of candidate expectations expressed by news organizations early in campaigns. Often casting choices are based significantly on early polls (and campaign cash), and sometimes they can become self-fulfilling prophecies as campaign coverage and elections move forward.

The author argues that casting occurs in regularly scheduled and significant news stories. The news choices fulfill both organizational needs and the routines of dramatic storytelling. The researcher examined polls and news coverage in the primary season from January 1 until March 14, 2000. News coverage was determined by daily keyword searches on Lexis-Nexis for each of nine candidates. The researcher tracked not only overall news coverage, but also news attention per polling point. Casting was clear: Al Gore and George W. Bush as extensively-covered front runners, a "serious candidates" field covered more extensively than their initial poll numbers would seem to justify, and nearly invisible "immediate also-rans."