Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090 |
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| Authors: | Antoine Bommier Ronald Lee Tim Miller Stéphane Zuber |
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| Institution: | 1. Directeur de Recherche, Toulouse School of Economics (CNRS, GREMAQ), France.;2. Professor of Demography and Jordan Family Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.;3. Population Affairs Officer, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CELADE, ECLAC), Santiago, Chile.;4. Postdoctoral research fellow, Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Louvain‐La‐Neuve, Belgium. |
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| Abstract: | Public transfer programs in industrial countries are thought to benefit the elderly through pension and health care programs at the expense of the young and future generations. This intergenerational picture changes, however, if public education is also considered as a transfer program. We calculate the net present value at birth of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090. Surprisingly, all generations 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many current elderly are net losers. Windfall gains from starting Social Security and Medicare partially offset windfall losses from starting public education, roughly consistent with the arguments of Becker and Murphy. |
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