中国对外直接投资的贸易结构效应

中国正在成为全球越来越重要的贸易大国和对外投资国。对外直接投资的贸易效应不仅反映在贸易规模扩张，更重要的意义在于对外直接投资对贸易结构的影响。本文对1982-2010年中国对外直接投资的贸易结构效应进行时间序列分析，发现中国对外直接投资存量滞后二期对货物贸易结构变化有积极影响；通过对2006-2010年间的七个具体行业对外直接投资的贸易结构效应进行面板数据分析，证实对外直接投资流量和存量对这些行业的进口贸易结构变化更显著，但由于数据的原因仅通过了KAO检验。两种检验结果说明，随着中国对外直接投资的发展，无论对外直接投资存量还是流量都具有一定的贸易结构效应。

Structure Effect of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Trade

The rapid expansion of China’s both foreign trade and outward foreign direct investment（ODI）, and their quick transforming from a small country to giant one. The main aim of this dissertation is to study the trade structure effect of China’s ODI, it’s more important than trade scale effect. The effect of ODI on trade structure, there is obvious evidence that the stock of ODI has positive effect on the structure of merchandise trade when using time series data from 1982 to 2010. Furthermore, when the panel data of China’s 7 industries that mixed merchandise trade and Trade in commercial services from 2006 to 2010 are used, the empirical results show that both the flow and the stock of ODI have effect on the structure of these industries.