日本经济长期萧条成因述评

20世纪90年代初日本经济出现重大转折,从此陷入长期萧条之中。时至今日,日本学术界有关萧条成因和政策选择的争论一直未停歇过。争论还涉及《前川报告》、国际政策协调、泡沫经济、资产价格减缩和日本银行的货币供给政策等一系列问题。关于萧条成因的争论给人们以多方面的启示:后工业化社会经济周期演化的新特点;国际政策协调难以在参与国间对等进行;结构改革与宏观调控相辅相成;理性的经济政策选择应超越一般社会观念;应提高对通货紧缩的警惕性等。

Review on Causes of Japanese Economy's Long-run Depression

During the early 1990s, Japanese economy experienced a substantial turn, and, since then, has been trapped in long-run depression. Till now, debate on the related causes and corresponding policy choices has been going on in Japanese academic circles. Many issues have been involved in this debate, e.g. issues related to Maekawa Report, international policy coordination, bubble economy, assets depreciation and national monetary supply. This depression and the resulting debate offer many indications as follows. First, research on the new characteristics of business cycle evolvement in post-industrialization is necessary. Second, international policycoordination can rarely be conducted between involved countries on a reciprocal basis.Third, structural reform and macro-control should supplement each other. Fourth, rational economic policy should not be constrained by common social notions. Fifth, attention should be paid to possible deflation.