地区发展、经济机会、收入回报与省际人口流动

利用最新的第六次全国人口普查数据,本文考察了省际人口流动的空间模式,发现省际人口流动呈现明显的空间聚集态势.并进一步分析地区差异对省际人口流动的影响,结果表明：作为流出地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于人口流出具有显著的阻力效应,但经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低并无显著的影响;作为流入地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于吸引人口流入并不具有显著的影响,其“拉力”主要表现为经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低.因地区发展不平衡短期内难以改变、经济开放性会继续增强、收入地区分化仍将存在,加上更加自由的流动环境和不断改善的交通和通讯条件,省级人口流动在局部地区集中的趋势将会进一步被强化.

Regional Development,Economic Opportunities,Income Returns and Inter-provincial Migration

Based on the data of 2010 census in China, this paper investigates the spatial pattern of inter-provincial migration. There is a significant trend of spatial concentration for inter-provincial migration. The regional disparities affects the inter-provincial migration. The high economic development in the region impede significantly the outflow of the population there, while economic opportunities and income returns have no significant impact to impede the outflow of population. However, the economic development of the migration destination areas has no significant effect on the inflow of migrants, and its ＂pull＂ for migrants comes from economic opportunities and income returns. It is clear that the trend of spatial concentration caused by inter-provincial migration will be strengthened by unbalanced regional development, increasing economic openness, regional disparities in income returns, the more free migration control and the increasingly improved communication and transportation network.