上海第一代独生子女父母的养老方式选择及影响因素研究—基于健康状况视角的实证分析

目前第一代独生子女父母多处于50-64岁的健康老年阶段,关于他们养老方式的研究也多基于身体状况较好时的选择.假设他们的健康状况越来越差时,他们的意愿养老方式及影响因素又是如何？现阶段尚无此方面的相关研究.本文利用上海闸北区的调查数据,从身体状况较好和较差两种视角构建模型,分析不同健康状况下上海市第一代独生子女父母的可能养老方式及影响因素,并在文章最后探讨研究结论的政策含义.

An Analysis of the Living Mode Selection of the Elderly Parents of the First One-child Generation and Its Affecting Factors in Shanghai

At present the parents of the first generation of one-child in Shanghai are in their 50-64 years old and most of them are healthy. The research of their living modal in their elderly time are mostly based on the present better healthy condition, how their living modal is going to evolve and what are to affect their living modal if they experience worse health condition？ There is no such researches yet. This article, based on the data of 1000 cases in Zhabei district of Shanghai, builds up two analysis modals separately by the hypothesis that the parents are in good health and worse health to analyze the possible living choices of the parents of the first generation One-child and the affecting factors in different health conditions in Shanghai. The findings＇ policy implications are discussed accordingly in the article.