中国生育率的地区差异及其政策选择

本文对中国妇女生育率的发展现况进行了客观的估计 ,分析了生育率及其地区差异的特点 ,从内容、可行性、合理性等不同角度对现行生育政策进行了审视 ,指出了现行生育政策条件下中国妇女生育率的发展趋势。面对社会经济和人口发展过程中面临的诸多人口问题与挑战 ,从是否需要调整、调整幅度与如何调整三方面对生育政策调整问题进行了深入的分析 ,讨论了各种可能的生育政策调整方案 ,并提出了自己的一些对策建议。

Fertility Differences among Regions in China and Policy Choices

This paper makes an objective estimation on the current situation of fertility rate in China, and analyzes the features of fertility rate and its regional differences. The authors put deep insights into current birth control policy such as its contents, flexibility and reasonability, and forecast the fertility trend in the context of current birth control policy. Facing with the problems and challenges showing up in the process of social economy and population development, the paper analyzes the issue of birth control policy such as whether the policy adjustment is needed, the adjustment range and how to adjust the polity. Further, the paper discusses the various possible solutions to the policy adjustment, and proposes some specific policy suggestions.