Improving models of democracy: The example of lagged effects of economic development,education, and gender equality |
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| Institution: | 1. School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK;2. Owens Institute for Behavioral Research, University of Georgia, Atlanta, USA;3. Alzheimer''s Scotland Dementia Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK;1. Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, 06123 Perugia, Italy;2. Department of Mathematics, University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 34, 90123 Palermo, Italy;3. Institut of Mathematics, Wrocław University, Pl. Grunwaldzki 2/4, 50-384 Wrocław, Poland;1. Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology, Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, PR China;2. Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control State Key Joint Laboratory, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, PR China;3. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Microorganism Application and Risk Control (MARC), Graduate School at Shenzhen, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China |
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| Abstract: | The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. |
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| Keywords: | Democracy Lagged effects Economic development Education Gender Statistical models |
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