基于协整和Granger因果分析的中国粮食生产研究

本文以1978～2007年为样本,对我国粮食总产量和农业生产总值以及农村居民家庭人均纯收入进行了单位根检验、协整关系检验和Granger因果关系检验。研究结果表明：在样本期内,农业生产总值的增加不仅不会影响粮食总量安全,相反对粮食总产量的增加产生积极的促进作用;粮食总产量的增加并不会带来农村居民家庭人均纯收入的增加。基于研究结果得到几点重要启示,希望能对我国粮食生产和粮食总量安全保障提供现实指导。

A Study on the Grain production of China Based on Co-intergration and Granger Test

This paper examines the long-term,cause and effect relationship between total grain yield and GDP1 and net income of rural residents by using econometric methodology of time series of unit root test,co-intergration relationship test and Granger cause and effect relationship test.The results of experimental analysis indicate Granger cause and effect relationship between total grain yield and GDP1,and no Granger cause and effect relationship exist between total grain yield and net income of rural residents.Based on the research result,we put forward some suggestions in order to guide to the grain production.