政府公共支出对居民消费需求影响的动态演化

 内容提要:本文从我国居民的消费特征出发，在诠释政府公共支出对居民消费影响的机理以及模型建立的理论基础上，利用时变参数模型来探寻二者之间关系的动态演化。研究表明：从总量上看，政府公共支出对全国、城镇和农村居民的消费都具有挤入效应，但是这一挤入效应呈现先上升后下降的“倒U字型”趋势。从结构上来看，投资性支出和民生性支出对全国居民消费产生了挤入效应，而消费性支出产生了挤出效应。具体到城乡之间，投资性支出对城镇居民消费产生挤入效应，而对农村居民消费经历了一个先挤入再挤出的过程；消费性支出对城镇居民消费产生挤出效应，对农村居民消费则经历了一个先挤出再挤入的过程；民生性支出对城乡居民的消费均始终具有挤入效应。

The Dynamic Evolution of the Influence of Government Spending on Consumers' Demand

Based on residents’ consuming characteristics of our country,this paper analyses the relationship between the government spending and residents’ consumption,and explore its dynamic changes using the time-varying parameter model.Research shows that:As a whole,the government spending has packed effect on the urban consumption and rural consumption,but it presents like a "reverse U".Analyzing from the structure,the investment spending and welfare spending have packed effect,but the consuming spending has extrusion effect.More specifically,the investment spending has packed effect on urban consumption,but rural consumption experiences a process of squeeze to extrusion.The consuming spending has extrusion effect on urban consumption,but rural consumption experiences a process of extrusion to squeeze.The welfare has packed effect on double urban consumption and rural consumption.