区域研究中的常用人口预测模型

人口是一国和地区发展的重要因素。准确的人口预测是制定国民经济计划、区域发展规划的基础。文章以甘肃省为例，介绍了线性回归模型、马尔萨斯模型、Logistic模型和GM（1，1）模型在人口预测中的应用，包括模型的建立、参数的求解以及精度检验。并分别用这几种模型对甘肃省2006—2020年的总人口进行预测。结果表明几种模型的拟合精度都比较高，预测值比较接近。取几种模型的预测平均值作为甘肃省总人口规模的预测结果。几种模型的平均预测结果为：2010年甘肃省总人口将达到2745．84万人，2015年将达到2840．91万人。2020年将达到2934．23万人．

A Study on Prediction Models of Population in Region Study

The population is an important factor in the development of a nation or region. Accurate population prediction is seemed to the premise to develop a feasible national economic plan or regional development planning. The paper takes Gnnsu province as an example, firstly introduce the applications of linear regression model, Malthus model, Logistic model and GM （1.1） model in population prediction, including the establishment, the solution of parameters and the precision testing of these models. Then the paper use of these modds predicting population from 2006 to 2020 in Gansu province. The results show that the fitting precision testing of these models all show relatively high level, and predictions of population base on different models is very similar. So, the paper takes average of predictions of several, models as the result of population prediction. It is that the population of Gansu province will be 27.4584 million in 2010, and this value will be 28.4091 million in 2015, 29.3423 million in 2020.