新陈代谢和GM（1,1）模型在深圳货运量预测中的应用研究

本文应用新陈代谢和GM（1,1）模型,以深圳货运量为研究对象进行对比分析,研究结果表明新陈代谢模型预测的精度高于GM（1,1）模型。在此基础上,运用新陈代谢模型预测2009~2013年深圳货运量,预测结果显示,到2013年深圳物流业仍将保持高速发展态势,其货运量将达到2008年的两倍,这一结论能为当地物流业发展提供参考。

Metabolic Model and GM(1,1)Model Applied in Forecast of Shenzhen Freight Volume

If Shenzhen freight volume could be accurately forecasted,it will not only contribute to local government to conduct reasonable logistics planning and scientific development of relevant policies,but also promote the third-party logistics enterprises to develop business.Based on the metabolic model and GM（1,1） model,we forecast freight volume of Shenzhen from the year 2004 till 2008.By comparing the result with metabolic GM（1,1） and normal GM（1,1）,we can see in evidence that the credible degree of former is high.Therefore we apply metabolic model GM（1,1） to forecast freight volume of Shenzhen from the year 2009 to 2013yrs.It shows that Shenzhen logistics industry will remain high speed development and the freight volume of Shenzhen in 2013yrs will almost as two times as it in 2008yrs.That will provide a scientific basis for rational development of logistics industry in Shenzhen.