The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Political Science, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 12, 55128 Mainz, Germany;2. Institute for Sociology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Karl-Glöckner-Str. 21E, 35394, Giessen, Germany;1. John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the Graduate Center, City University of New York, United States;2. University of Maryland, United States;1. Department of Sociology, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9104, 6500 HE Nijmegen, The Netherlands;2. Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK;3. Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 2T7, Canada;1. Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada;2. School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom;1. Dynamique du Langage, University of Lyon, France;2. Laboratory for Comparative Social Science Research, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation;3. Departments of Psychology and Anthropology, Washington University in St. Louis, United States;1. Osaka University, Japan;2. The University of Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Existing cross-sectional research considers citizens' preferences for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties to be centrally driven by their perception that immigrants threaten the well-being of the national ingroup. However, longitudinal evidence for this relationship is largely missing. To remedy this gap in the literature, we developed three competing hypotheses to investigate: (a) whether perceived group threat is temporally prior to RRP party preferences, (b) whether RRP party preferences are temporally prior to perceived group threat, or (c) whether the relation between perceived group threat and RRP party preferences is bidirectional. Based on multiwave panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2008–2013 and from Germany spanning the period 1994–2002, we examined the merits of these hypotheses using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. The results show that perceptions of threatened group interests precipitate rather than follow citizens' preferences for RRP parties. These findings help to clarify our knowledge of the dynamic structure underlying RRP party preferences. |
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| Keywords: | Radical right-wing populist party preferences Perceived group threat Party identification Panel data Autoregressive cross-lagged models |
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