中国投入产出表直接消耗系数变动研究

本文以中国1987、1992、1997、2002、2005年五张全国投入产出表为分析对象，研究了1987-2005年间中国投入产出表直接消耗系数的变动情况，研究表明：投入产出表直接消耗系数矩阵总体差异程度总体上为下降趋势；直接消耗系数的稳定性和直接消耗系数数值的大小有显著的正相关关系；直接消耗系数差异程度增大的部门主要集中于高科技产业部门，直接消耗系数差异程度减小的部门主要集中于传统产业；1987-2005年，中间总投入比成逐年增加，各个部门的中间投入比的平均值逐年下降，离散程度减小；1987-2005年，三次产业均增加了对第二产业的中间消耗、减小了对第一产业的中间消耗。

Study on Change of Direct Consumption Coefficient in China Input-Output Table

The general trends of the direct consumption coefficient change are summarized by the comparison of Chinese series input-output tables from 1992 to 2000．The studies show that: the overall difference of the direct consumption matrix has a descending trend, the overall difference between 1992 and 1997 is the largest; the stability of the direct consumption coefficient is directly proportional to the size of the direct consumption coefficient; the intermediate input proportion is descending from 1987-2005 and that for every department gradually converge; the intermediate use proportion of the secondary industry is ascending, but that of the first industry is descending and that of the tertiary industry is keeping stable.