"马尔萨斯制约"与经济发展的路径选择--对世界经济发展的重新认识

本文探讨了最近一千年中,西方国家的兴起与东方国家相对衰落的原因。在对前人研究的基础上,引入“马尔萨斯制约”的概念,并以此来说明人类发展所面临的基本问题。通过人类突破“马尔萨斯制约”的必要性分析,指出了突破这一制约的方式。进而讨论了古代文明、荷兰等国的衰落与英国的崛起,论证了缺乏理性的国家难以突破“马尔萨斯制约”。同时,对我国宋代以来停滞不前的现象进行了深刻反思,认为“棘轮效应”的存在阻碍了古代中国的发展。最后讨论了20世纪70年代末以来出现的世界经济增长中的“邓小平效应”,由此得到的基本结论是:由邓小平同志领导中国人民创造的经济奇迹一是依靠从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转型;二是通过对外开放积极参与经济全球化的进程。这种对内改革和对外开放并举的发展战略有效地突破了中国传统的束缚,从而实现了世界经济史上罕见的经济增长。

Malthus Limit and the Way of Economic Development

This article intends to explain the rise of the West and the decline of the East during the last one thousand years. It introduces the concept of the Limit of Malthus, in order to explain the basic problems in the development of human beings, and points out how to break the Limit. It further proves that a country lacking rationality can hardly break the Malthus Limit. Meanwhile, it offers a deep reflection on the decline of China after the Song Dynasty and thinks that it is the Ratchet Wheel Effect that restrained the development of China. Finally, it discusses the Deng Xiaoping Effect that appeared in the growth of world economy and draws a conclusion that there are two channels, internal reform and external open policy, leaded by Deng to break the traditional limit and achieve the miracle of extraordinary economic growth.