南阳示范区城镇化可持续发展研究

南阳市为中国 2 1世纪议程地方试点示范城市。利用灰色关联原理对 1990～ 1998年南阳示范区城镇化的分析表明 ,其主要影响因素为 :第二、第三产业产值占GDP的比重、非农业部门收入占国民收入的比重、第二产业产值比重 ,据此通过成因预测和劳动平衡预测法、二重回归预测法的校验 ,得出南阳 2 0 10年城镇化水平为 37～41%。今后南阳城镇化的主要对策是调整产业结构 ,加速城镇化进程 ;大力建设可持续城镇 ;重点发展首位城市 ;积极发展小城镇 ,完善城镇网络

A Study on The Sustainable Development of Urbanization in Nanyang Sample Region

Nanyang is one of the sample trial regions of China Agenda 21. This paper analyses its urbanization process by grey relation rule during the period between 1990 to 1998,poninting out that the primary factors which influence urbanization are the following points: the proportion of the second and third industrial output value in GDP, the proportion of income from non-agriculture areas, and the proportion of the second industrial output value in GDP. According to this result, the conclusion that the urbanization proportion in Nanyang will be 37～41% in 2010 can be drawn by the forecast method of labor balance and repeat regression. The way to urbanization should be to adjust the industrial structure, to devote great efforts to building sustainable towns, to emphasize the development of the top city and to develop small towns positively.