| “十二五”中国经济发展预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 门可佩,赵凯,朱淑丹.“十二五”中国经济发展预测研究[J].阅江学刊,2011(2):56-60,77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 门可佩 赵凯 朱淑丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国统计科学研究计划重点项目课题“中国人口、能源、环境与经济协调发展评价研究”(2008LZ022);南京信息工程大学第六批教改项目“多元统计分析精品课程”(08KC0012) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据《中国统计年鉴—2010》的最新统计资料，通过建立对数新发展系数优化灰色模型，对2011年-2015年中国宏观经济发展趋势进行实证分析和预测研究，结果表明：（按2010年现价计，未扣除CPI等影响）2011年我国GDP将突破45万亿元，达到450143亿元，到2015年可达745511亿元，约为2010年的1．9倍；“十二五”期间整个国民经济发展态势良好，经济保持稳定增长，预计GDP年均增长率约为13．4％，“十二五”规划的预期目标可望顺利实现。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国经济 灰色建模 对数新发展系数优化灰色模型（LNDCGM） 预测 |
Research on Prediction of China Economy Development during "The Twelfth Five-year Plan" |
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| MEN Ke-pei,ZHAO Kai,ZHU Shu-dan.Research on Prediction of China Economy Development during "The Twelfth Five-year Plan"[J].Yuejiang Academic Journal,2011(2):56-60,77. |
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| Authors: | MEN Ke-pei ZHAO Kai ZHU Shu-dan |
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| Institution: | (College of Mathematics & Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the latest statistics of ＂China Statistical Yearbook-2010＂, an optimized grey model with logarithmic new development coefficient is established to practically analyze and forecast the China＇s macro-economy in 2011-2015. The results （calculated using current price in 2010 ignoring the effect of CPI） show that China＇s GDP in 2011 will exceed 45 000 billion RMB to reach 45 014.3 billion RMB. GDP will reach 74 551.1 billion RMB in 2015, which is roughly 1.9 times of the 2010＇s. During the period of ＂The Twelfth Five-year Plan＂, the national economy will develop well and grow steadily with GDP increasing at a rate of 13.4 % per year. The target of ＂The Twelfth Five-year Plan＂ will be accomplished smoothly. |
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| Keywords: | China economy grey modeling grey model of logarithmic new development coefficient forecast |
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