快速人口转变后的中国长期经济增长—从预期寿命、人力资本投资角度考察

在过去三十年里，中国历经了发达国家要用一百多年才能完成的人口转变过程。生育率、死亡率快速下降，接踵而至的是日益严重的少子、老龄化过程。基于以上背景，本文扩展了Diamond（1965）的基本叠代模型，以不确定性寿命为切入点，在个人的微观行为基础上，致力于分析以下问题：中国是否需要调整当前的计划生育政策；随着人口红利的逐渐消失，中国长期的经济增长如何持续。本文的分析结果显示，预期寿命与生育率、人力资本投资、储蓄率以及经济增长的关系是非单调性的。

The Long-Terra Economic Growth after Fast Population Changes in China——from the view of life expectancy and human capital investment

In the past 30 years, China has been experiencing a fast population changes which consumed more than one hundred years in developed countries. With the decline in fertility and mortality, the pace of population ageing is more and more rapid. Under this condition, extending the basic overlapping-generations model by Diamond（1965）, utilizing uncertain life-time, basing on individual micro-action, this paper endeavors to analyze the following events： is it necessary for China to modify the present family planning policy; with the disappearance of population dividend, how could the long-term economic growth be sustained. The results show that, the relationship between fertility, human capital investment, saving rate and economic growth is non-monotonic.