公路运输与国民经济的协调发展预测分析

深化公路运输与国民经济发展的协调性研究是保持中国经济持续、稳健发展的需要。对两者之间未来的协调发展进行趋势预测和分析，对中国公路运输以及国家经济政策的制定具有一定的参考价值。以此为目的，运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型及修正模型，利用聚类分析进行公路运输与国民经济的指标选取，结合公路运输与国民经济的相关数据对各评价指标进行2017~2020年的预测，计算公路运输与国民经济评价指标的关联程度和耦合度，以此对公路运输与国民经济未来的协调发展进行实证分析。结果表明，国民经济各指标与公路运输的关联程度比较强，整体都在0.70以上;从公路运输行业的角度来看，实际利用外资额与公路运输行业的关联度最大，国内生产总值与全社会固定资产投资次之；从国民经济的角度来看，公路里程与公路货物周转量和国民经济的关联度最大，公路旅客周转量比较弱；在耦合度方面，国民经济与公路运输行业的耦合度呈下降的趋势，说明中国公路运输与国民经济协调发展的稳定性在未来的几年里将逐步降低。

Research on Coordinated Development of Road Transportation and National Economy

Advancing the coordinated studies of highway transportation and national economic development is necessary for maintaining the sustained and robust development of China’s economy. The trend prediction and analysis of the future coordinated development between the two boast of certain reference value for China’s highway transportation and the formulation of national economic policies. For this purpose, the gray forecasting GM (1,1) model and the modified model are adopted in this paperwith the Cluster Analysis used to select indicators for highway transportation and national economy. With the relevant data of highway transportation and national economy in consideration, the 2017~2020 forecast is made for each evaluation index. Then the degrees of association and coupling between highway transportation and national economy evaluation indicators are calculated, based on which the future coordinated development of highway transportation and national economy is subject to empirical analysis. The results show that the correlation between the various national economy indicators and highway transportation is relatively strong, with an overall value above 0.70. From the perspective of the highway transportation industry, the actual use of foreign capital is the most relevant to the highway transportation industry, followed by the gross domestic product and the fixed assets investment of the whole society. From the perspective of the national economy, the correlation between highway mileage and highway cargo turnover and the national economy is the strongest, while the highway passenger turn over is relatively weakly correlated with the latter. In terms of coupling degree, the coupling degree between national economy and highway transportation industry shows a declining trend, indicating that in the next few years, the stability of the coordinated development between China’s highway transportation and national economy will witness a gradual decline.