交通运输促进新型城镇化发展的实证检验

推进新型城镇化建设，构建现代化的交通运输体系，是促进地区经济高质量增长的需要。基于向量自回归模型，构建新型城镇化与交通运输评价指标体系，利用熵值法测定陕西省2000～2016年的新型城镇化与交通运输发展的综合评价指数，并进行格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数检验和方差分解。研究认为，新型城镇化和交通运输都发展较快且呈现同步发展的趋势；新型城镇化与交通运输存在单向的格兰杰因果关系，交通运输是推进新型城镇化的格兰杰原因，在短期内交通运输可有效促进新型城镇化的发展；脉冲响应检验与方差分解表明，交通运输对新型城镇化具有明显的短期正向促进作用，新型城镇化对交通运输具有长期持续的正向促进作用。

Empirical test on the promotion of new urbanization by transportation

Promoting new urbanization construction and building a modernized transportation system is necessary for promoting high quality growth of the regional economy. Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of new urbanization and transportation, uses the entropy method to measure the comprehensive evaluation index of new urbanization and transportation development in Shaanxi province from 2000 to 2016, and conducts the Granger causality test, impulse response function test and variance decomposition. This research believes that the new urbanization and transportation are both developing rapidly and exhibiting a trend of simultaneous development. There is a one way Granger causal relationship between new urbanization and transportation. Transportation is the Granger’s cause of promotion of new urbanization, and it can effectively promote the development of the latter in the short term. Impulse response test and variance decomposition show that transportation has obvious short term positive promotion effect on new urbanization, while the latter has a long term positive promotion effect on the former.