中国农产品进口潜力及来源结构：一项进口多元化战略的实证研究

扩大农产品进口有助于保障我国农产品供给，也有利于实现农业产业升级、提高可持续发展能力，科学测度中国农产品进口潜力则显得格外重要。基于1995-2019年世界双边贸易数据，构建进口潜力标准化指标测算分析农产品进口潜力和分布特点，并采用贸易边际方法进一步讨论未来农产品进口潜力来源结构。结果表明：（1）从总规模看，入世前农产品进口不足，入世后进口增加，2009年开始进口明显过度；（2）从国家（地区）分布看，中国从欧盟、北美自由贸易区、南美洲等国家（地区）进口农产品过度，从东盟进口适度，从印度和韩国进口不足，未来农产品进口重点区域在亚洲内部；（3）从产品分布看，动物类产品进口过度，食品加工类产品进口适度，果蔬类产品进口不足；（4）从来源结构看，农产品进口数量过度，进口种类适度，进口价格不足。提出要坚持“立足国内供给、适度进口调剂”安全战略，积极实施农产品进口多元化战略，对农产品进口实行国别管理，实施区域性贸易战略；对农产品进口分品种理性看待并分类实施；积极调整进口来源结构，减少对进口数量的依赖，重视优质、高附加值农产品进口，促进农产品进口增长方式转型。

Potential and Source Structure of Agricultural Imports in China：An Empirical Study of Import Diversification Strategy

Expanding the import of agricultural products will not only help ensure the supply of agricultural products in China，but also help to upgrade the agricultural industry and improve the ability of sustainable development.Therefore，it is particularly important to scientifically measure the potential of agricultural imports.Based on the world bilateral trade data from 1995 to 2019，a standardized index of import potential was constructed to measure and analyze the potential and distribution characteristics of agricultural imports，and the trade margin method was used to discuss the source structure of future agricultural imports.The results show that：1） In terms of total scale，agricultural imports were insufficient before China’s accession to the WTO，increased after accession，and showed significant excessive imports starting from 2009；2） From the perspective of spatial distribution，Chinese agricultural imports excessively from the EU，NAFTA，South America and other countries（region），moderately from ASEAN，insufficiently from India and the republic of Korea，thus the key source area for future agricultural imports will be within Asia；3） From the perspective of product distribution，there is excessive import of animal products，moderate import of food processing products，and insufficient import of fruits and vegetables；4） From the perspective of source structure，there is excessive quantity of agricultural imports，moderate variety，and insufficient import prices.It is proposed to adhere to the security strategy of “relying on domestic supply with moderate import adjustments” and diversifying agricultural imports.Moreover，it is also important to implement country-specific management of agricultural imports and regional trade strategies，rationally treat and implement classification of agricultural imports by variety，actively adjust the structure of import sources and reduce the dependence on import quantity，attach importance to the import of high-quality，high-value-added agricultural products，and promote the transformation of the growth mode of agricultural imports.