宅基地禀赋与乡城家庭化迁移——基于分期动态家庭迁移决策机制分析

家庭化迁移已成为中国乡城迁移的主要模式，具有分期性和动态性的特征。以往的研究主要集中于土地对个体迁移决策的影响，对家庭化迁移的关注较少，也很少有研究考察土地在家庭化迁移不同阶段的影响。基于新迁移经济学理论的视角，在托达罗模型的基础上构建分期动态的家庭化迁移决策机制，将家庭化迁移分为两个阶段：家庭离散阶段和家庭聚合阶段，并利用2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明：（1）拥有宅基地对家庭化迁移有显著的负向影响；（2）对于拥有宅基地的家庭，宅基地面积对家庭化迁移的影响为显著的“正U型”；（3）相比于家庭离散阶段，宅基地禀赋在家庭聚合阶段的影响更大。据此建议进一步保障农民土地产权的稳定性、探索构建农村宅基地流转制度、制定满足迁移家庭基本生活需求的公共服务和户籍制度。

Homestead Endowment and Rural-Urban Family Migration——An Analysis of Decision-Making Mechanism Based on Staged Dynamic Family Migration

Family migration has become the major mode of rural-urban migration in China，characterized by staging and dynamics. Previous studies have mainly focused on the impact of land on individual migration decisions， paying less attention to family migration， and few studies have examined the impact of land at different stages of family migration. From the perspective of the New Economics of Labor Migration theory， a staged dynamic decision-making mechanism for family migration was constructed based on the Todaro model， which divides family migration into two stages： family separation stage and family reunion stage， and empirical analysis was conducted using the data of the 2017 China Migrant Dynamic Survey. The findings reveal that owning homestead land has a significant negative impact on family migration. For families that own homestead land， homestead land area has a significant “positive U-shaped” impact on family migration. Compared to the family separation stage， the endowment of homestead land has a greater impact on the family reunion stage. Based on the results， it is recommended to further ensure the stability of farmers’ land rights， explore the establishment of a rural homestead land transfer system， and formulate public services and household registration systems to meet the basic needs of migrant families.