| 非政策因素对我国生育率影响的量化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张爱婷,杜跃平. 非政策因素对我国生育率影响的量化分析[J]. 人口学刊, 2006, 0(2): 3-7 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张爱婷 杜跃平 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北大学,经济管理学院,陕西,西安,710069 |
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| 摘 要： | 以西方生育率变动理论为依据,利用中国第五次人口普查的省区截面数据,采用路径分析法对影响中国生育率的非政策因素进行量化分析。目前对生育率直接效应最大的非政策因素是社会经济发展水平,妇女的受教育状况次之,避孕节育对生育率的影响已经减弱;同时还发现社会经济发展水平主要是直接或通过教育因素间接对综合生育率产生影响,而教育对综合生育率的影响除了直接或通过避孕节育间接发生作用外,还有一些影响是通过模型以外的其他要素来发生作用的。
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| 关 键 词： | 非政策因素 总和生育率 路径分析法 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-129X(2006)02-0003-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-23 |
The Non -political Factors'''' Effect on the Fertility Rate in China |
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| ZHANG Ai-ting,DU Yue-ping. The Non -political Factors'''' Effect on the Fertility Rate in China[J]. Population Journal, 2006, 0(2): 3-7 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ai-ting DU Yue-ping |
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| Abstract: | This research analyzes relationships between Non-political factors and fertility through path analysis on the basis of the West fertility transition theory and the fifth census data of China's 31 provinces/administrative.Path model resulted that(socio-)economic development and gender education had become significant by 2000,but the direct effects through family planning behavior on fertility rate decreased.It was also found that socio-conomic development effect on fertility rate through direct effect and(indirect) effect via family planning behavior.Gender education effects on fertility through other factors,excluding direct effect and indirect effect via family planning behavior. |
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| Keywords: | non-political factors total fertility rate path analysis |
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