西方人口分布预测研究动态

在人口预洲领域，对出生、死亡、迁移、规模以及结构（性别、年龄）等因素的预测已经有了很大进展，然而对于人口分布方面的预测研究则少之又少。非常可喜的是，近十年来西方一些学者，在这个方面已经做了一些有益的尝试。可以为我国将来在该领域的研究起到很好的借鉴作用。本文就西方学者近期人口分布预测的研究傲一简要梳理．涉及的预测主题依次为：种族、教育状况、老年人口保健与收入、劳动力、移民出生地、家庭户主率等。

Trend of Demographic Distribution Projection Research in the West

There have been a great development in the projection for birth, death, migration, size as well as construct in age and age in the area of demographic prediction; however, there is little study about the demographic distribution. It is glad that some researchers in western world have made a few investigations in the field, and it will be very useful for our research in the future in China. The paper will review last decade demographic distribution projection methods in the west and themes are as follows in turn： ethnic or racial group, education status, health and income of the elderly, specific labor force group, immigration birth or origin place, and households.