| 低生育率时代的中国生育政策调整——基于对低生育率社会经济负效应的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 董延芳,刘传江.低生育率时代的中国生育政策调整——基于对低生育率社会经济负效应的分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2009,9(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 董延芳 刘传江 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学人口·资源·环境经济研究中心,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目，中国博士后基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 人口生育政策不是人口增长状况的唯一决定因素,人口增长也不是经济增长的唯一因素.从生育政策到人口增长再到经济增长与发展存在复杂的传导机制.人口控制政策为改革开放以来的经济增长贡献很大,但并不意味着"高经济增长、低人口增长"是中国长期经济增长的永恒模式.从经济学家关于危机和反危机的理论与一些国家的实践经验看,适当的人口增长有利于经济长期处于准繁荣状态,而持续低迷的人口增长不是长期经济增长的福音.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口政策 人口与经济发展 长期经济增长 |
China's Fertility Policy Adjustment in Low Fertility Rate Time:Based on an Analysis of the Socio-economic Negative Effects of Low Fertility Rate |
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| LI Tong-fing,GUO Xi-bao.China''s Fertility Policy Adjustment in Low Fertility Rate Time:Based on an Analysis of the Socio-economic Negative Effects of Low Fertility Rate[J].Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition),2009,9(6). |
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| Authors: | LI Tong-fing GUO Xi-bao |
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| Institution: | DONG Yan-fang,LIU Chuan-jiang(Population,Resource , Environment Economics Research Center,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China) |
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| Abstract: | Essentially,birth control policy is not a only determinant of population growth.There is a complex mechanism from birth control policy to population growth and then economic growth and development.Birth control policy has made great contribution to China's social and economic development since 1970's,but this does not imply that the model of high economic growth with low population growthwill be permanently carried out in the long term's economic growth.From the theories and practices of economic crisis,the... |
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| Keywords: | birth control policy population and economic development economic growth in the long run |
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