河南省工业化与城镇化的协调发展——基于农村劳动力转移视角

农村劳动力在产业间转移与工业化紧密相关、在城乡间转移与城镇化紧密相关。农村劳动力的转移决策是一种基于信息传播、预期形成的复杂微观决定，大量农村劳动力向城镇区域非农产业集体转移，宏观上表现为转移目的地工业化和城镇化水平的提升。预期在决策中起关键作用的农村劳动力转移将工业化、城镇化联结在一起，使得城镇化水平对工业化发展的弹性在短期、长期分别表现出滞后和超前的特征。在构建城镇化水平与工业化发展局部调整一自适应期望综合模型基础上，运用河南省相关时间序列数据对河南工业化、城镇化协调发展问题进行实证分析，可提出促进农村劳动力转移、推进河南工业化、城镇化协调发展的建议。

Coordination Development of Industrialization and Urbanization in Henan Province： Based on the Perspective of Rural Labor Transfer

Rural labor transfer is in contact with industrialization or urbanization by transferring among different industries or between village and city. The decision of rural labor transfer is a kind of micro decision, based on information disseminating and expectation forming. In macro, we often see the increasing level of industrialization or urbanization in immigration area where rural labor transfer happen. Anticipation is a key factor in making decision of labor transfer, by which industrialization is contacted with urbanization, and urbanization shows different characteristics in response to industrialization. An analysis is made of the coordination development of industrialization and urbanization in Henan Province, based on local adjustment adaptive expectation model and related data from Henan Province. Some pieces of advice designed to promote rural labor transfer is put forward, aiming to advance the coordination level between industrialization and urbanization in Henan Province.