电价波动的产业结构效应——基于CGE模型的分析

为探索电价波动与产业结构变化的关系,本文主要应用CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型对中国的电价波动与产业结构变化进行了实证研究。结果表明,各行业产出对电价的交叉弹性系数虽然很小,但耗电越多的行业对电价变化的反映越敏感。因此,本文认为,出于抑制高耗能产业膨胀、促进能效提高的目的,可以适当提高电价,但不能对电价的产业结构效应期望过高。同时应采取适当的电价调整方式,以避免电价波动的其他负面影响,促进电力合理利用和经济社会的可持续发展。

Potential Effects of Electricity Price Change on Industrial Structure——Empirical Analysis from Different Angles

In this paper,both an econometrical methods and a CGE model have been used to explore the relationship between electricity price and industrial structure in China.The granger causality test shows that variation of electricity price granger cause the variation of industrial structure.The general equilibrium analysis shows that though the cross elastics of every industry's output to electricity price are very low,the industries with more electricity consumption are more sensitive to the change of electricity price.Therefore,the policy makers may enhance electricity price to control the expansion of those electricity-intensive industries.While the electricity price should be enhanced by taxing resource tax or environmental tax to reflect the real cost of electricity,and avoid the monopolized profit of the electricity industry.In addition, the electricity price should be enhanced step by step.