我国粮食单产保险纯费率厘定的实证研究

粮食保险属于政策性农业保险，其费率厘定应以风险区划为基础，准确的费率厘定将有助于政府制订出科学的保险支农政策。本文从以产量变化测度自然风险对粮食安全的影响这一新的视角建立了粮食安全自然风险影响的评价指标体系。利用系统聚类法、K-均值聚类法和模糊聚类法对我国粮食生产进行了省级保险风险区划，并以Fisher判别法、Bayes判别法和逐步判别法进行了回判验证。在对各省（市、区）粮食单产分布进行检验的基础上，选取经验费率法厘定了单产保险的纯费率，并结合风险区划结果和政策取向对纯费率进行了调整。进一步的研究需要实施较小基本单位的风险区划和费率厘定，基本单位越小，费率厘定越符合实际，但工作量越大。

An Empirical Study on the Net Premium Rates Calculation of Grain Insurance in China

Grain insurance belongs to policy-guided agricultural insurance. Its rates are calculated based on risk zoning. Accurate rate-making will be conducive to make agricultural insurance policies. The paper constructs the evaluation index system of natural risk influence from a new view that output’s change can measure the influence of natural risks on grain production. And then the insurance risk zoning is done by hierarchical cluster, K-Means cluster and fuzzy cluster analysis approaches and the result is tested by Fisher’s, Bayes’ and stepwise discriminant analysis methods. Based on the test of output distribution per unit area in all provinces, the net premium rates are formulated by experience rating and are adjusted in view of risk zoning and government policies. Further study should be focused on the smaller basic units. The smaller the basic units are, the more accurate the calculated net premium rates are, but the more difficult the study will be.