制造业资本回报率的省际差异及收敛性研究

根据边际产出法测算资本回报率时,由于传统的生产函数忽略了技术进步的内生性而导致资本回报率低于实际值。文章对此进行修正,并结合企业层面的微观面板数据测算了制造业全国层面和地区层面的资本回报率,分析了资本回报率的省际差异性和收敛性。结果显示：从资本回报率的水平值看,2001—2015年平均每年是8.79%;从资本回报率的区域差异看,从高到低依次是东部、西部、中部、东北;从资本回报率的省际收敛性看,资本回报率的增长率与资本回报率的水平值负相关,而且资本回报率的省际差距在缩小;从资本回报率的影响因素看,全要素生产率是影响资本回报率的主要因素。

A study on the provincial difference and convergence of the returns on capital of the manufacturing industry in China

The traditional production function ignores the endogeneity of technological progress, so the return on capital according to the marginal output is lower than the actual value. In term of a new method, this paper studies regional difference and convergence of the returns on capital of manufacturing industry in China. The following conclusions are made. First, on the whole, the overall return on capital is 8.79% in the period from 2001 to 2015. Second, returns on capital are significantly different according to the regions, that is, the eastern coastal areas have relatively high rates of return on capital while the central and western regions have relatively low. Third, the analysis of convergence indicates that the growth rate of return on regional capital is negatively correlated with the level value. Finally, TFP has a significant positive impact on the growth of capital return as a major factor while housing price and capital deepening are negative.