考虑投入产出效率的中小企业财务困境预测方法

中小企业在国家和区域经济发展中具有非常重要的作用.本文首先根据中小企业的经营特点,提出了一套财务困境预测的指标体系,然后提出了一种基于数据包络分析和支持向量机的中小企业财务困境集成预测方法.所提出指标体系的主要特点是,在一般企业财务困境预测指标体系的基础上,增加了企业的效率指标.应用安徽省某融资服务机构的70家中小企业历史样本数据,实证分析了本文提出方法的合理性和优越性.

Small-Medium-Enterprise Financial Failure Prediction Considering Efficiency

Small-mediument erprises(SMEs) play an important role in regional and national economy By analyzing the business characteristics of SMEs, this paper presents an attribute system for SME financial-failure prediction, and then develops a SME financial failure prediction method based on Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) and Support Vector Machine(SV M) Compared with the generalattribute system offi-ancial failure prediction, the main difference of the proposed attribute system is that the business efficiency is included. We collect historical data of 70 SMEs from a financing support organization in Anhui province, and apply the proposed method to the historical data of the 70 SMEs Experiment results conform the efficacy of the proposed method.