| 基于连续性动态分布方法的中国碳排放收敛分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴建新,郭智勇.基于连续性动态分布方法的中国碳排放收敛分析[J].统计研究,2016,33(1):54-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴建新 郭智勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 暨南大学经济学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目“推动经济发达地区产业转型升级的机制与政策研究”(71333007)，国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国重点生态功能区市场化生态补偿机制研究”(15ZDA054)的阶段性成果.同时获国家自然科学基金项目“中国城市水务行业市场化改革的效率评价及提升路径研究”(71473105)，广东省普通高校人文社科基地重大项目“低碳经济趋势下广东参与国际分工的战略调整和政策研究”(11JDXM79002) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用连续性动态分布方法结合2002-2011年286个地级以上城市的面板数据分析了中国碳排放强度和人均碳排放的动态演进和长期趋势。研究发现，虽然所研究时期碳排放强度和人均碳排放均为单峰分布，但按照目前的发展趋势，二者都将出现明显的俱乐部收敛现象，且这种俱乐部收敛并不由地域因素决定。为了避免出现俱乐部收敛的极化现象，政府需要重点加强碳排放强度约为4.05、4.7倍均值和人均碳排放约为3.9、5.0倍均值城市的碳减排。
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| 关 键 词： | 连续性动态分布方法 碳排放 收敛 |
Research on the Convergence of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China:A Continuous Dynamic Distribution Approach |
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| Wu Jianxin & Guo Zhiyong.Research on the Convergence of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China:A Continuous Dynamic Distribution Approach[J].Statistical Research,2016,33(1):54-60. |
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| Authors: | Wu Jianxin & Guo Zhiyong |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the continuous dynamic distribution approach to study the dynamic evolution and long-term trend of carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions, basing on the panel data of 286 cities and prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2011 in China. It shows that both carbon dioxide emission intensity and per capita dioxide emissions are unimodal distributions during the study period, while from the trend, they will converge to a few “clubs” which are not determined by regional characters. To avoid the possible polarization of club convergence, the government should pay more attention to the cities with carbon dioxide emission intensity value of 4.05, 4.7 times to yearly average or per capita carbon dioxide emissions of 3.9, 5.0 times to yearly average. |
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| Keywords: | continuous distribution dynamic approach carbon dioxide emissions convergence |
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